Wall Street split on gold price path after drop below $4,300, Main Street maintains bullish majority as jobs take center stage
Kitco
公開日時: Sep 26, 2026, 06:36 AM GMT+9
Sentiment Analysis
Gold prices survived another difficult week as early attempts to stabilize above $4,350 were overwhelmed by higher Treasury yields, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and persistent inflation concerns tied to energy prices and the U.S.-Iran conflict. Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,383.44 per ounce on Sunday evening, and the yellow metal briefly pushed higher as traders continued to monitor Middle East diplomacy and the risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz. The move quickly stalled, however, with gold setting its weekly high at $4,387.51 per ounce on Sunday evening before sellers regained control. The metal came under renewed pressure Monday and Tuesday as a rally in equities, higher yields, and a firmer dollar reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Gold attempted to stabilize midweek, but hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation concerns kept traders focused on the likelihood of additional rate hikes after last week’s 25-basis-point increase. Selling accelerated Wednesday and Thursday as Treasury yields continued to rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Spot prices broke below $4,300 and ultimately set their weekly low of $4,244.63 per ounce on Thursday before bargain-hunting emerged near the lower end of the week’s range. Gold recovered modestly on Friday as oil prices eased on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the dollar slipped and dip-buyers stepped back into metals markets. But the rebound remained capped by elevated rate-hike expectations, and spot gold failed to reclaim the $4,300 per ounce level ahead of the weekly close.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street with no clear conviction on gold’s near-term direction, while Main Street maintained its bullish majority despite gold’s weak weekly performance.
“I like gold next week on ideas that the pendulum of Fed expectations has swung as far or nearly as far as they will, and the next batch of important US data will reinforce that,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “Next week, U.S. reports August PCE deflator that will include a methodological adjustment that will shave some inflation off, and September jobs growth looks weaker than in August. Still, gold needs to rise above $4400 to be anything noteworthy.”
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Technically, the Dec gold futures contract is oversold on its short-term daily chart, but as the old saying goes, a market can stay overbought (or oversold) longer than most of us can remain solvent. (A take on Keynes view of irrational behavior in a market.) Based on Game Theory - and after all this is nothing more than a game of how algorithms will be triggered these days - this will be my third consecutive week of saying Up, with one correct (two weeks ago) and one incorrect (this past week). This makes the coming week the Rubber Match for the best two out of three.”
“For the record, fundamentally nothing has changed,” Newsom added. “US Treasury yields continue to go higher because of inflation while central banks continue to buy gold.”
“Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Investors are starting to come around to the fact that there is only so far the FED can raise rates… since we cannot afford the current debt servicing of $1.6 trillion per annum (4% of $40 trillion). And since Congress will never stop overspending, gold will go higher. This is a no-brainer.”
“For the coming week I am neutral on Gold,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “I just don’t see many major catalysts.”
“Down,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “The issue with yields isn’t going away anytime soon and bonds seem fragile, so I’m looking for a spike in yields that I think could possibly bring a tradable low in gold. As long as we’re above 4k, I think there’s...
Source: Kitco
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