Energy Transfer: Strong Momentum Drives Upside

ET has seen a strong YTD with volume momentum across commodities, aided by the Iran war and US datacenter demand. Full-year guidance appears conservative despite the Q2 raise, we forecast FY26 EBITDA ~6% above guidance and expect another upgrade with Q3 results. ET's 7% dividend yield remains sector-leading. Higher EBITDA should drive distribution growth upside beyond consensus even as growth spending remains high.

We first covered Energy Transfer ( ET ) back in early 2024 when we issued a BUY rating on shares based on its leading US pipeline and midstream business. Since then shares have delivered a