Mondi 2027 upgrade hopes tempered by rising costs, Jefferies says

What Brokers Say Industry & Services Written by: Ian Lyall 08:00 Fri 25 Sep 2026 --> Edited by: Jamie Ashcroft Disclaimer No investment advice About this content Editorial Standards & Policies Share article About this content × About Ian Lyall Ian Lyall, a seasoned journalist and editor, brings over three decades of experience to his role as Managing Editor at Proactive. Overseeing Proactive's editorial and broadcast operations across six offices on three continents, Ian is responsible for quality control, editorial policy, and content production. He directs the creation of 50,000 pieces of real-time news, feature articles, and filmed interviews annually. Prior to Proactive, Ian helped lead the business output at the Daily... Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience. All our content is produced independently by our experienced and qualified teams of news journalists. Proactive news team spans the world’s key finance and investing hubs with bureaus and studios in London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney and Perth. We are experts in medium and small-cap markets, we also keep our community up to date with blue-chip companies, commodities and broader investment stories. This is content that excites and engages motivated private investors. The team delivers news and unique insights across the market including but not confined to: biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto and emerging digital and EV technologies. Use of technology Proactive has always been a forward looking and enthusiastic technology adopter. Our human content creators are equipped with many decades of valuable expertise and experience. The team also has access to and use technologies to assist and enhance workflows. Proactive will on occasion use automation and software tools, including generative AI. Nevertheless, all content published by Proactive is edited and authored by humans, in line with best practice in regard to content production and search engine optimisation. Mondi PLC ( LSE:MNDI ) View Price & Profile Mondi 2027 upgrade hopes tempered by rising costs, Jefferies says Published: 08:00 25 Sep 2026 EDT Mondi PLC (LSE:MNDI) , the integrated European packaging and paper group, faces rising cost pressures that could limit expectations for a stronger earnings recovery in 2027, Jefferies said. Jefferies expects Mondi to report third-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of €205 million, up from €167 million in the second quarter. The broker expects price and product mix improvements of about €40 million and a €43 million positive swing in the fair value of Mondi’s forests to offset part of the cost pressures. Those benefits are expected to be partly offset by higher maintenance spending and around €40 million of cost inflation across energy, wood and chemicals. Jefferies said hopes for upgrades to 2027 forecasts had been tempered by Mondi’s recent commentary on greater cost inflation volatility and uncertainty over demand heading into the fourth quarter and 2027. The broker still expects earnings to strengthen, forecasting fourth-quarter EBITDA of €252 million as higher containerboard prices feed through and sack paper pricing improves into 2027. Mondi has highlighted a €35 million half-on-half headwind from higher wood costs in central Europe, while Jefferies estimates an additional €50 million energy headwind in the second half because the group has no gas hedges. Jefferies left its 2026 EBITDA forecast broadly unchanged at €836 million but raised its 2027 estimate by 2% to €1.01 billion. The broker expects EBITDA to rise from €379 million in the first half of 2026 to €457 million in the second half, driven principally by higher pricing and product mix. Jefferies rates Mondi 'buy' and sets a price target of 1,080p, compared with a prior 1,085p target and a reference share price of 840p. The broker said the key catalysts for a further improvement in sentiment were industry capacity closures and a recovery in packaging prices, which could tighten supply and demand conditions. Mondi is scheduled to publish its third-quarter trading update on 15 October, when investors will be looking for evidence that higher prices are beginning to outweigh persistent input cost inflation. Continue reading