Meta One Subscriptions Show Positive Early Signs, Analysts Forecast Long-Term Growth

Meta Platforms stock has risen more than 25% since August, driven partly by its Muse AI agent becoming the top free U.S. App Store download. Meta expanded its Meta One subscription plans with pricier business and creator tiers, reaching 15 million subscriptions and trials globally so far. Analysts at BNP Paribas and Truist project Meta's subscriptions could generate $13.5 billion by 2028 and $20 billion by 2030, respectively.

Shares of Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META have been on an absolute tear. The stock’s closing low in August was approximately $543. Since then, shares have gained over 25%. Meta Platforms Today META Meta Platforms $763.29 +19.19 (+2.58%) As of 11:10 AM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more. 52-Week Range $520.26 ▼ $768.65 Dividend Yield 0.28% P/E Ratio 28.91 Price Target $798.78 Add to Watchlist

The company’s Muse personal AI agent has been a primary driver of this surge. Muse recently became the most-downloaded free app on Apple's NASDAQ: AAPL U.S. App Store, taking the top spot from OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Get Meta Platforms alerts: Sign Up

The excitement comes as Muse could become a key avenue for Meta to drive non-advertising AI revenue. Muse is not the only way that Meta is looking to juice its non-advertising revenue. The company also unveiled various subscription plans months ago and recently announced an update to this initiative.

Meta Pushes Forward Subscription Plan Rollout

Meta released several subscription offerings in late May, called “Meta One” plans. These subscriptions cost between $2.99 per month and $19.99 per month for consumers. The more expensive plans provide more premium features across all three of Meta’s apps: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, as well as more AI usage. The company also released business and creator plans, starting at $14.99 per month and going up to $49.99 per month. It appears the company has now introduced even more expensive business and creator plans. The Expert plan costs $149 per month, while the Max plan is $499 per month. These plans greatly increase the human support businesses can receive, with the Max plan providing unlimited support cases per month and offering the most access to the Meta Business Agent.

These plans are now globally available, following an initial rollout over the past few months. Meta notes that it has so far amassed 15 million subscriptions and trials to date. Given that this figure includes both subscriptions with an unknown price breakdown and trials, it is difficult to assess the revenue effect. However, assuming a blended price of $10 per month for 15 million users would equate to $1.8 billion in annual sales. This would be very small relative to Meta’s expected total revenue of over $250 billion in 2026, but the offerings are still in the early stages of rollout.

Recent Data Shows Spiking In-App Purchase Activity

Some particularly interesting data points come from the mobile consumer data platform Apptopia. The company measured in-app purchases (IAP) revenue between Meta’s initial subscription rollout and mid-September. Up until Sept. 9, there was essentially no change in these numbers. However, that day, IAP revenue soared and has remained elevated since. Daily average IAP revenue on Instagram rose 475% to $1.2 million compared to $209,000 in the prior eight weeks. On Facebook, average daily IAP revenue rose 143% to $528,000. Both of these figures surpassed previous all-time high IAP levels. These figures imply incremental daily IAP revenue of approximately $991,000 for Instagram and $311,000 for Facebook, or around $1.3 million combined. As an illustration, extending this over 365 days would imply a $47...