Aurora Innovation Targets 30,000 Driverless Trucks, $5B Revenue by 2030

Aurora Innovation plans to scale to more than 30,000 driverless trucks and over $5 billion in revenue by 2030. It expects 200 trucks in commercial driverless service by the end of 2026, with positive run-rate gross profit in the first half of 2027 and free cash flow in 2028. The company is shifting toward an asset-light Driver-as-a-Service model, in which carriers own the trucks while Aurora supplies the autonomous-driving technology. Aurora expects this model to become its primary growth engine starting in 2027. Early customers report improved utilization and strong uptime, while Aurora says autonomous operations can reduce costs by more than 20% and improve fuel efficiency. Hardware partnerships with Fabrinet, Roush, Volvo and AUMOVIO are intended to support production growth and lower fleet customers’ upfront costs.

Aurora Innovation NASDAQ: AUR used its 2026 Analyst and Investor Day to outline plans to expand its driverless trucking operations, scale hardware production and pursue an asset-light Driver-as-a-Service model aimed at supporting more than 30,000 trucks by 2030. Co-founder and CEO Chris Urmson said Aurora has moved beyond discussing when autonomous trucking could arrive and is now operating driverless trucks in daily commercial service. He said the company expects to have 200 driverless trucks on the road by the end of 2026, operating for customers on existing routes.

Urmson said Aurora’s strategy centers on trucking because of the sector’s driver shortages, safety challenges, operating-cost pressures and existing infrastructure. He said the company’s technology can enable trucks to operate around the clock, improve asset utilization and reduce labor, fuel and insurance costs. Aurora said that, in long-haul applications with Werner and McLane, its trucks are operating at an annualized rate of 225,000 miles, while a short-haul deployment with Detmar Logistics has doubled daily trips.

Customers cite safety and utilization During a customer panel, executives from Werner, McLane and Detmar Logistics described safety, reliability and utilization as central factors in adopting autonomous trucking.

Daragh Mahon, executive vice president and CIO of Werner, said the carrier had become comfortable with Aurora’s safety case and technology, while noting that reliability will need to be demonstrated over substantially more miles. Mahon said Werner views autonomous trucks as complementary to drivers, particularly for long and difficult middle-mile routes, rather than as a replacement for the company’s workforce.

Eric Hildenbrand, McLane’s chief legal, strategy and administration officer, said the company sees autonomous trucks as a way to support its middle-mile freight movements while preserving drivers for final-mile work, including store deliveries that require unloading. Hildenbrand said McLane has seen strong uptime so far, though he characterized the deployment as early.

Matt Detmar, CEO of Detmar Logistics, said the company is using Aurora’s technology on a roughly 60-mile loop in the Permian Basin. He said autonomous operations have increased truckloads per day from an average of two to 2.5 to five to six, improving tractor and trailer utilization. Detmar said his company expects to move into the hundreds of autonomous trucks over the next several years as it expands the deployment.

Aurora President Ossa Fisher said the company’s analysis, using American Transportation Research Institute data, indicates customer sav...