Duolingo: The AI Risks Are Real But The Valuation Is Too Tempting To Pass Up

Summary Duolingo earns a buy rating as strong fundamentals and reasonable valuation outweigh AI-related risks. DUOL delivers ~29% YOY revenue growth, and ~36% TTM net income margin, and trades at a TTM GAAP PE of ~18. AI presents both headwinds and tailwinds, but DUOL's proprietary data and monetization momentum provide a defensive moat. The current valuation requires only ~11% LFCF growth, which appears achievable given DUOL's financial trajectory. stockcam/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images When I first started to look into Duolingo ( DUOL ), I was quite skeptical of its investment potential. AI-associated risks were a part of that cynicism, but only part. I also questioned how effectively Duolingo could monetize This article was written by APAC Research 1.45K Followers Follow Markets rise and fall, booms come and go, and the world keeps ticking. Ultimately, I believe observing megatrends, as difficult as they can be to spot, let alone fully comprehend, can yield insights into the advance of human society, which in turn could pave the way for many useful investment insights. As society and technologies evolve, companies and other stakeholders will seize advantages. Figuring out which companies will take the best advantage of any given opportunities is not easy. I am especially interested in macrotrends, futurism, and increasingly, emerging technologies. However, as far as investing is concerned, it’s crucial to pay attention to the fundamentals, quality of leadership, product pipeline, and all the other details. In recent years, I have focused on marketing and business strategy, primarily for medium-sized companies and startups. I have worked in international development, including overseas for a foreign Prime Minister’s office, as well as non-profit work in the United States. Among other tasks, I evaluated startups and emerging industries/technologies. I have also moonlighted as a technology and economic news journalist. Now I’m looking to tie everything together. While my personal interests will always keep megatrends and technological developments in mind, I do believe fundamentals and technicals are vital to uncovering opportunities. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in DUOL over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.