Howmet Aerospace: The SpaceX Threat Is Overblown (Rating Upgrade)

Dhierin Bechai Investing Group Leader Follow Summary Howmet Aerospace is upgraded to Buy after a recent 7.5% stock price decline, driven by overblown concerns about SpaceX’s in-house turbine blade casting. HWM maintains a dominant >50% global market share in industrial gas turbine blades, with robust long-term agreements and active capacity expansions in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. SpaceX’s initiative addresses its own supply bottleneck rather than competing at scale with HWM, limiting any real earnings or margin impact for HWM. Base case targets 16% revenue and 22% EBITDA CAGR through 2028, with price targets of $266–$302, offering 15–30% upside from current levels. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at The Aerospace Forum. Learn More » Daria Matveeva/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Howmet Aerospace ( HWM ) fell 7.5% on August 31 after Elon Musk said SpaceX ( SPCX ) could accelerate natural-gas turbine deployment by up to 18 months through in-house blade and This article was written by Dhierin Bechai 24.69K Followers Follow Dhierin-Perkash Bechai is an aerospace, defense and airline analyst. Dhierin runs the investing group The Aerospace Forum, whose goal is to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense and airline industry. With a background in aerospace engineering, he provides analysis of a complex industry with significant growth prospects, and offers context to developments as they occur, describing how they might affect investment theses. His investing ideas are driven by data informed analysis. The investing group also provides direct access to data analytics monitors. Learn more. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.