Capstone Partners Reports: Aerospace & Defense M&A Activity Shines in Muted Market

BOSTON , Sept. 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Capstone Partners' annual Aerospace, Defense, Government & Security (ADGS) Industry M&A Report and 2026 Outlook examines Public market valuations, macroeconomic trends, and deal activity across each of the four industry pillars. Capstone Partners' ADGS Investment Banking Team provides merger and acquisition (M&A), capital formation, and financial advisory services to the owners of middle market businesses in the ADGS industry that serve growing end markets. Our team provides proprietary experience advising scaled, technology-enabled services and solutions providers across multiple mission-critical end markets. Fervent Aerospace & Defense M&A Demand Backed by Resilient Market Dynamics The ADGS industry entered 2025 after a prior-year-period that saw significant gains in deal count and strong valuation performance despite a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape that depressed dealmaking elsewhere in the market. Yet, Aerospace & Defense M&A continued to expand throughout 2025, posting a 10.3% year-over-year (YOY) uptick in deal count matched by a 73.1% increase in total disclosed enterprise value (EV) and robust deal valuations averaging 3.0x EV/Revenue and 11.4x EV/EBITDA. The first quarter of 2026 suggested no slowdown in buyer interest, marked by a 37% YOY increase in Aerospace & Defense M&A volume totaling $47.1 billion of disclosed EV. While Q1 2026 EBITDA multiples contracted nearly two turns from full-year 2025 to 9.5x, revenue multiples expanded significantly to 4.8x—a signifier of the growing demand for subscription-based solutions within the Government and Security markets, and early-stage technology-enabled developers in the Aerospace and Defense spaces. Aerospace dealmaking in 2025 was defined by depressed aircraft production levels, delivering strong end market opportunities—and subsequent buyer interest—across the Manufacturing, Maintenance, and Leasing segments. Volatile fuel prices pushed low-cost carriers (LCCs) to their limits, providing a pool of eager sellers for airline consolidation through the first quarter of 2026. Fragmentation continued to define the Component Manufacturing segment as strategics and sponsor-backed platforms alike sought scale, specialization, and geographic expansion. Defense spending underpinned continued expansion in military-focused M&A in 2025, extending gains through Q1 2026. A record-breaking fiscal year (FY) 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) was followed by an even loftier FY 2027 President's Budget request, lifting proposed spending to $1.5 trillion, according to The White House . The Department of War (DOW) reformed the historically conservative acquisition process, incentivizing renewed investments in strategic inorganic growth and wider investment in the U.S. industrial base to align with new contracting opportunities and practices. Private market financing was accompanied by an active Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) and preference for commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions, delivering critical lifelines to small, innovative defense technology developers. Government contracting M&A experienced an acute pullback in 2025. The Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ) injected uncertainty into the Federal Contracting space, exacerbated by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Acquirers adapted by shifting target criteria to diverse revenue streams across both federal and state, local & education (SLED) levels of government. The first quarter of 2026 saw M&A restored to stable levels of growth, signifying renewed confidence in government contracting. Security remained a top concern in both the physical and cyber realms in 2025 and Q1 2026. A nationwide focus on inner-city law and order supported M&A demand across the Physical Security landscape, while chronic law enforcement staffing shortages brought uniformed guard services to the forefront of dealmaking. Software integration offered unique opport...