It's Not Worth Buying VOO Or QQQ Anymore

Millennial Dividends 10.27K Followers Follow Summary I've owned Vanguard 500 Index ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF for years, now 30% and 15% of my portfolio, respectively, but I no longer sleep well with capital parked there. The 19.6x forward P/E looks fine, yet Shiller's CAPE at 42.38x is the second highest since 2000. Q2 earnings growth drops from 52% to 33.8% excluding Alphabet's $98B and Amazon's $53.4B unrealized gains, flattening the base for forward estimates. Top 10 holdings are 37% of the S&P 500 and 46% of QQQ, all tied to roughly $725B of 2026 CapEx that is increasingly credit-funded. With core PCE at 3.3% and the 10Y at 4.79%, the equity risk premium is about 30 bps, so I'd rather send new money elsewhere. Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images I've been investing in Vanguard 500 Index Fund ( VOO ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) for many years now, seeing them as the core positions in a durable, long-term-oriented portfolio aimed at compounding wealth, with This article was written by Millennial Dividends 10.27K Followers Follow My investment philosophy is built around one objective: compounding capital over a 30-year horizon to achieve financial independence by age 60. I target 12–15% annual total returns and focus purely on risk-adjusted upside. I don’t subscribe to a specific investing label — value, growth, dividend, or quality. Capital goes where the opportunity is strongest. My portfolio is intentionally concentrated, typically holding no more than 10–15 positions. These are high-conviction investments, not an exercise in diversification for its own sake. Valuation matters, but only in the context of future growth and business quality. I’m not looking for the cheapest stocks — I’m looking for the best risk-reward opportunities. I invest across both US and European markets and use dollar-cost averaging as a core execution discipline to remove emotion and market timing from the process. Outside equities, I own two residential properties. Combined with stocks, this provides geographic and asset-class diversification. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VOO, QQQ, MSFT, HESAY, NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.