The "Warsh Vs. The White House" Trade

Amrita Roy Investing Group Follow Summary The US President has demanded that the Fed slash interest rates or face a total trade cutoff with countries with which the which the US has a trade deficit. A premature Fed rate cut under political pressure risks a bond market meltdown and loss of central bank credibility when the labor market is strong and inflation remains above target. I maintain 80% exposure to AI infrastructure, software, hyperscalers, and gold, with 20% in cash for flexibility across volatile scenarios. Gold (GLD) is my preferred hedge, benefiting from real yield compression and dollar debasement should the Fed come under pressure. I also selectively added to AI infrastructure names like BE, MRVL, ON, and CRDO, while trimming software, expecting bond volatility to ease and AI demand to persist. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The REIT Forum get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images News Introduction A strong labor market should be good news for the US economy and financial markets. Yet, when yesterday’s jobs report showed that the US economy added triple the number of jobs expected, the S&P This article was written by Amrita Roy 7.93K Followers Follow Amrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the family fund. The fund's objective is to invest capital in sustainable, growth-driven companies that maximize shareholder equity by meeting their growth-oriented goals. In addition, she also started her own award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist which focuses on portfolio strategy, valuation, and macroeconomics in concert with her husband Uttam Dey who is also a contributor on Seeking Alpha. Prior to cofounding her fund, Amrita worked for 5 years in high-growth supply-chain start-ups in downtown San Francisco, where she led strategy. During her time in the Bay Area, she also worked with venture capital firms and start-ups, where her efforts led her to grow the user acquisition business. During this time, she was introduced to investment portfolios and was able to maximize returns for clients during the pandemic. The cornerstone of Amritas work rests on democratizing financial literacy for everyone and breaking down financial jargon and complex macroeconomic concepts into formats that are easily digestible but more empowering than the typical investment thesis. Her newsletter has been featured as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular newsletter platforms and she aims to bring her ideas to Seeking Alpha as well. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MRVL, CRDO, ON, BE, GLD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.