EWZ: Here's The Brazilian Election Trade

Bernard Zambonin 1.87K Followers Follow Summary Foreign investors are already positioning for Brazil’s election through heavy post-election iShares MSCI Brazil ETF call activity, with the trade beginning to spill into the underlying market. The aggressive call strikes should not be read as price targets, as call spreads offer asymmetric upside with limited upfront risk. Brazil’s presidential race has tightened materially, while prediction-market odds have also shifted in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favor since August. The 2018 election shows that EWZ can reprice well before the final vote once markets begin assigning higher odds to a political regime shift. Marcelo Hernandez/Getty Images News Back in June, when I last covered the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF ( EWZ ), I still carried a mildly bullish bias towards Brazilian equities, although I was concerned that the trade could become less and This article was written by Bernard Zambonin 1.87K Followers Follow Equity Research Analyst at DM Martins Research.I cover stocks that are often undercovered, focusing primarily on Brazil and Latin America — but I also occasionally write about global large caps. My work can also be found on TipRanks, where I contribute regularly, and on TheStreet, where I was a frequent contributor in the past.- Disclaimer: All views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official positions of DM Martins Research. My articles and analyses are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ITUB, NU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.