Tesla stock officially enters a bull market: Is TSLA to $500 next?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) has officially entered a bull market after rallying more than 20% from its July lows, closing at $367 on August 31 following a 5.51% daily gain.

The move has renewed investor focus on Tesla’s long-term growth story, with questions emerging over whether TSLA can rally to $500. As things stand, the stock’s technical picture has improved significantly. Daily charts show a series of higher highs and higher lows throughout August, culminating in a breakout that pushed shares close to $370.

At the same time, Tesla remains technically bullish in the short term, trading above its 50-day SMA of $360.46. This signals positive momentum and confirms the stock’s rebound from its July lows. However, TSLA remains below its 200-day SMA of $401.06, indicating the longer-term trend has yet to fully turn bullish. A break above that level would strengthen the case for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 67.9, just below the overbought threshold of 70. This points to strong buying momentum, although the stock may be nearing a short-term overextended condition.

Tesla’s latest surge has been driven by growing investor confidence in its AI and autonomy strategy, shifting focus away from electric vehicle sales and toward robotaxis, Full Self-Driving (FSD), robotics, and energy infrastructure.

A major catalyst is the company’s September 3 Cybercab event in Austin, where investors expect updates on Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi, commercialization plans, deployment timelines, and potential revenue opportunities. The event has reinforced optimism around Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions, FSD adoption, and Optimus humanoid robot program.

Notably, as things stand, the electric vehicle manufacturer has already expanded robotaxi services across multiple U.S. markets, while paid FSD subscriptions reached approximately 1.48 million, up about 56% year over year. North American FSD attach rates have also exceeded 55% on new vehicle deliveries.

On the other hand, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic. Based on 28 analyst ratings as tracked by TipRanks , TSLA holds a ‘Moderate Buy’ consensus, with 11 buys, 14 holds, and three sells. The average 12-month price target stands at $385.05, implying limited upside from current levels. However, the highest target is $505, while the lowest is $130.

Reaching $500 would require Tesla shares to gain roughly 37% from current levels. Supporters argue that further progress in robotaxis, FSD monetization, AI infrastructure, and Optimus deployment could justify a higher valuation.

Tesla’s latest financial results support that growth narrative. Revenue increased 25% year over year to $28.24 billion, while quarterly deliveries reached a record 480,000 vehicles. Energy storage deployments also continued to expand.

However, Tesla’s operating margin fell to approximately 1.4% in the second quarter as spending increased on AI infrastructure, research and development, stock-based compensation, and manufacturing expansion. The company also expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, contributing to negative free cash flow.

Valuation remains another concern, with critics arguing that Tesla’s premium multiples already reflect significant success in autonomy, robotics, and AI, leaving limited room for execution errors.