Wall Street Brunch: Walmart Leads Retail Earnings Week

Walmart (WMT) faces heightened scrutiny as it reports earnings Thursday, with concerns over U.S. comparable sales potentially missing expectations. Oppenheimer downgraded WMT to Perform, citing anticipated comps of 3% versus the Street's 3.8%, and moderating growth in General Merchandise and Health & Wellness. Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) earnings will provide insight into discretionary spending and home improvement demand amid elevated borrowing costs. Fed minutes and upcoming employment and inflation data will shape expectations for future rate moves, with policymakers signaling patience unless inflation reaccelerates. Walmart, Target, Home Depot offer fresh reads on spending. Fed minutes could shed more light on rate path. Anthropic sees revenue approaching $200B. Wall Street gets a series of fresh reads on the health of the U.S. consumer next week, with Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) reporting earnings. Home Depot kicks off the retail reports Tuesday, giving investors a look at demand for home improvement as consumers continue to contend with elevated borrowing costs and a sluggish housing market. Target follows Wednesday, with investors watching for signs of strength in discretionary spending and an update on the retailer's outlook for the second half of the year. And Walmart is the main event Thursday. Investors will be looking for the retail giant's latest read on consumer spending, as well as the impact of tariffs and pricing. The company has topped earnings estimates in 15 of the past 16 quarters. Oppenheimer recently downgraded Walmart to Perform from Outperform, warning that U.S. comparable sales could fall short of expectations. Analyst Rupesh Parikh expects a comp of about 3%, below the Street figure of 3.8%. "We expect strong grocery momentum to continue in a more difficult backdrop lately and are modeling a moderation for both the General Merchandise and Health & Wellness categories," he said. Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up: Baidu (BIDU) reports Tuesday. Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's (LOW) and Estée Lauder (EL) weigh in Wednesday. And Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE) and Ross Stores (ROST) report Thursday. Looking to the economy The minutes of the last Fed meeting, where the FOMC held rates with three dissents, are due Wednesday. Wells Fargo economists say they expect the minutes to reflect that "members are willing to be patient for now when it comes to further progress on inflation, but the bar is low for future rate hikes if inflation does not slow further." "Next month's employment and inflation data will go a long way toward deciding the September FOMC meeting, but the path is clearly there for policymakers to once again leave the fed funds rate unchanged," they added. In the news this weekend, Anthropic (ANTHRO) is forecasting its 2028 revenue to reach roughly $190B to $200B, a figure that will help determine its IPO valuation when the AI startup makes its much-anticipated public debut, Reuters reported. Multiple reference points, including cloud infrastructure firm Cloudflare (NET), enterprise software company Palantir (PLTR), and newly public SpaceX (SPCX), are under consideration as valuation comps. Anthropic's growth trajectory is seen as a key reason to base its revenue multiple on 2028 projections, with the expectation that current spending will fund a business that eventually generates significantly higher revenue and strong margins. And Jane Street reportedly posted a $15B loss last month after taking a hit on its investment in Situational Awareness, which was forced to conduct a fire sale to Ken Griffin's Citadel. It's a rare setback for the secretive trading firm, which is well known for its rigorous risk manage...