The Next Leg Of The Bull Run Is Priced In Oil Barrels

I still think a rate hike is on the table before the end of this year (likely December). That may lead to a double-digit correction in the broader markets. I still believe this run is fragile beyond 8,000 in the S&P 500, and I don't have much conviction in its continuation beyond the next interest rate hike. Short term, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally, with the S&P 500 hitting the 8,000 mark. The earnings story of the S&P 500 remains intact (although fragile and, in my view, highly dependent on the demand from 2 unprofitable frontier AI labs). In this piece, I focus on the July CPI and the latest on Hormuz, as I think the markets are waiting for a (fragile) deal before likely resuming the next leg of the run.

The main highlight this week was the headline and core CPI for July coming in line with consensus. That definitely helped the markets, especially momentum names in the semiconductor industry. The broader markets haven’t

Thematic. Top down. I often find the theme before I find the stock. My philosophy is that themes are often born quiet and die loud. I try to catch them while they're still finding their voice. When the music plays, I mainly chase pockets that rhyme with growth, momentum, perception shifts, and sometimes even the most absurd narratives (mostly AI-related). When the music slows and the tape deteriorates, I don't wait around. I raise cash/rotate out, and watch for the next setup. A parabolic run may trigger a similar move. During a bull run, you won't find much common ground between the deep value crowd and me. I liked the core ideas of deep value investors, and I briefly followed that philosophy. However, it demands patience, and the AI supercycle broke whatever patience I had left. The market changed, and so did I. My style is not set in stone. I’m mostly long when the music is playing. When it stops/slows down, I may dabble with shorts via put options, although it’s not my forte. My style is highly speculative. I have a high risk tolerance that most rational investors would find alarming. I don’t have a favorite timeframe. That said, I trade mostly the mid-term and the short-term. I have a pathetic low six-digit portfolio, and I consider myself part of the mid to low end of the K-shaped economy. It sometimes drops to the five-digit range when life has other plans. I've been in the game since mid 2024, although my first dabbles with stocks (i.e., burning $100 trading accounts in a matter of days) go back to the early/mid 2010s. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and experience as a consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I live on the wrong side of the Atlantic. The opening bell is my lunch bell. I like astrology, so I’m a follower of technical analysis (mainly trends and support/resistance/psychological levels). I also look at the fundamentals of individual names, although the theme and the macro often prevail in my decision-making. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS (especially), unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority.