Inflation Holds Steady, Rate Hike Odds Retreat

ETF Strategist Content Hub Inflation Holds Steady, Rate Hike Odds Retreat Sage Advisory August 13, 2026 For a market braced for an inflation surprise, July’s CPI report provided none of the sort. Core CPI rose 0.2% and headline CPI increased 0.1%, both matching expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation stands at 2.5% while headline CPI is running at 3.4%. Markets took the report in stride, with Treasury yields moving lower and investors trimming the odds of a September rate hike from roughly a coin flip to less than 40%. Futures implied policy rates fell after the inflation release, lowering market expectations for additional rate hikes in 2026. The data does not settle the debate inside the Fed, but it does weaken the case for an imminent tightening move, particularly as labor market data has softened in recent months. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and elevated energy prices continue to pose a risk, but for now inflation appears to be moving sideways to lower rather than showing signs of a renewed upswing. For more news, information, and analysis, visit the ETF Strategist Content Hub . Disclosures: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security, strategy or investment product. Although the statements of fact, information, charts, analysis and data in this report have been obtained from, and are based upon, sources Sage believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and the underlying information, data, figures and publicly available information has not been verified or audited for accuracy or completeness by Sage. Additionally, we do not represent that the information, data, analysis and charts are accurate or complete, and as such should not be relied upon as such. All results included in this report constitute Sage’s opinions as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice due to various factors, such as market conditions. Investors should make their own decisions on investment strategies based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Sage Advisory Services, Ltd. Co. is a registered investment adviser that provides investment management services for a variety of institutions and high net worth individuals. For additional information on Sage and its investment management services, please view our website at sageadvisory.com, or refer to our Form ADV, which is available upon request by calling 512.327.5530. RELATED TOPICS etf strategist Content Hub sage Earn free CE credits and discover new strategies