Traders slash odds on imminent Gemini Pro launch as Google's flagship slips again

Tech Written by: Ian Lyall 11:01 Thu 13 Aug 2026 --> Disclaimer No investment advice About this content Editorial Standards & Policies Share article About this content × About Ian Lyall Ian Lyall, a seasoned journalist and editor, brings over three decades of experience to his role as Managing Editor at Proactive. Overseeing Proactive's editorial and broadcast operations across six offices on three continents, Ian is responsible for quality control, editorial policy, and content production. He directs the creation of 50,000 pieces of real-time news, feature articles, and filmed interviews annually. Prior to Proactive, Ian helped lead the business output at the Daily... Read more About the publisher Proactive financial news and online broadcast teams provide fast, accessible, informative and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience. All our content is produced independently by our experienced and qualified teams of news journalists. Proactive news team spans the world’s key finance and investing hubs with bureaus and studios in London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney and Perth. We are experts in medium and small-cap markets, we also keep our community up to date with blue-chip companies, commodities and broader investment stories. This is content that excites and engages motivated private investors. The team delivers news and unique insights across the market including but not confined to: biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto and emerging digital and EV technologies. Use of technology Proactive has always been a forward looking and enthusiastic technology adopter. Our human content creators are equipped with many decades of valuable expertise and experience. The team also has access to and use technologies to assist and enhance workflows. Proactive will on occasion use automation and software tools, including generative AI. Nevertheless, all content published by Proactive is edited and authored by humans, in line with best practice in regard to content production and search engine optimisation. OpenAI View Price & Profile Traders slash odds on imminent Gemini Pro launch as Google's flagship slips again Published: 11:01 13 Aug 2026 BST Prediction market punters have all but written off a Google Gemini Pro release this week, with odds on a launch by 14 August collapsing 46 percentage points to 4%. The Polymarket contract, which has drawn just under $1 million in volume, resolves yes only if Google makes its next Pro-tier model available to the general public. Odds on a release by 21 August have fallen 42 points to 11%. Even the 31 August contract, the most heavily traded of the three at roughly $247,000, sits at 44%. A companion market asking whether no new Gemini Pro model arrives within the window is priced at 57%. The scepticism reflects a launch that has slipped repeatedly. Google announced the Gemini 3.5 family at its I/O developer conference on 19 May, shipping the cheaper Flash version the same day and promising the Pro model the following month. June passed, then July, when Google released three further Gemini models without the flagship. Bloomberg has reported internal delays as the model struggled to hit performance targets. The most advanced Pro model Google currently offers is Gemini 3.1 Pro, dating from February, and the DeepMind product page still carries a "coming soon" badge for its successor. That gap matters commercially, because Pro models are the ones aimed at complex reasoning and coding work where OpenAI and Anthropic have shipped repeatedly this year. There is a technical wrinkle traders are watching. Gemini 3.1 Pro remains formally in preview, and the market rules suggest that promoting an existing preview model to general availability could count as a release, even without new capability. One holder argued in the market's comment thread that removing the preview label alone would be enough to settle the contract. A separate market on whether Gemini 4.0 lands by 30 September is priced at 23%. Continue reading