My Argument Against A Fed Rate Hike

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices are elevating bond yields and weighing on equities. July's CPI is expected to show another decline in the annual inflation rate, likely supporting a positive market response and easing interest rates. The probability of a September Fed rate hike has dropped below 50%, with further declines likely if inflation data meets expectations. Maintaining current monetary policy is favored, as inflation is driven by supply shocks and fiscal issues outside central bank control.

Despite reports that an agreement of sorts between Iran and the US was near, President Trump refuses to give an inch in his demands, and Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until its demands are met.