Bloomin' Brands: I Called The Turnaround Too Early, The Market Didn't

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. is upgraded to Hold after a post-earnings rally, reflecting a more balanced risk/reward profile. Outback's same-store sales growth is driven entirely by pricing, while traffic continues to decline, raising sustainability concerns. Bonefish Grill and Fleming's outperform with traffic-driven growth and value-focused menu innovations, partially offsetting Outback's challenges. Management raised FY 2026 EPS guidance to $0.90–$1.00 and expects limited further upside unless pricing power or margins improve.

I confess, seeing This article was written by Pedro Goulart 968 Followers Follow I’m an equity analyst and founder of Goulart’s Restaurant Stocks, a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry — from quick-service and fast casual to fine dining and niche concepts. I lead all thematic research and valuation efforts, applying advanced financial modeling, sector-specific KPIs, and strategic insights to uncover hidden value across public equities. In addition to restaurants, I cover consumer discretionary, food & beverage, casinos & gaming, and IPOs, with a particular focus on micro and small caps that are often overlooked by mainstream analysts. My research has been featured on Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, Mises Institute, Investing.com and other plataforms. My background combines hands-on experience in finance and business management with academic foundations. I hold an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, a Bachelor’s in Business Administration. I’ve also pursued specialized training in valuation, financial modeling, and restaurant operations (I had a brief experience as an undergraduate as a franchise partner for a regional ice cream shop).