ArcelorMittal Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Q2 EBITDA increased to $2.1 billion , or $155 per ton, with European EBITDA reaching a three-year high of $98 per ton. Management expects momentum to continue into the second half of 2026. European order books are strengthening, with fourth-quarter orders already being booked and production restarted in Spain, Poland and France. The company expects stable-to-higher Q3 shipments, aided primarily by anticipated import reductions under new tariff-rate quotas.

ArcelorMittal expects positive full-year free cash flow and $1.8 billion of incremental EBITDA from strategic growth projects from 2026 onward. Key initiatives span India, Brazil, the U.S. and sustainable solutions, while European decarbonization investments remain dependent on improved project economics.

ArcelorMittal NYSE: MT reported improving operating momentum in the second quarter and said it expects progress to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by stronger European order books, production restarts and strategic growth investments. Group CFO Genuino Christino said second-quarter EBITDA rose to $2.1 billion, representing $155 per ton. The company’s European segment generated EBITDA of $98 per ton, a three-year high, as market conditions and the policy environment improved.

The company also said it recorded its lowest-ever lost-time injury frequency rate during the first six months of the year. While calling the safety progress encouraging, he said ArcelorMittal remains focused on further improvement.

European production and order books strengthen ArcelorMittal said customer engagement and order books have improved in Europe, where it is already booking orders for the fourth quarter. The company has restarted production in Spain, Poland and France and expects to have its full suite of European blast furnaces operating from the third quarter.

Management guided for third-quarter shipments to be stable to higher than second-quarter levels, an outcome Christino characterized as counterseasonal. He said steel prices have not followed the typical pre-summer downward trend, while tariff-rate quota, or TRQ, measures are expected to reduce imports and allow the company to regain market share.

We are booking right now already for quarter four,” Christino said in response to a question from Morgan Stanley analyst Alain Gabriel. “It’s all playing out very, very well.” While restarting facilities will increase carbon costs, Christino said higher capacity utilization and fixed-cost absorption should more than offset those costs. He said the additional tons brought back into production are expected to be more profitable than current output. The company said European demand itself has remained broadly stable rather than materially improving. Christino said the expected reduction in imports under the TRQ regime is the principal driver of the anticipated shipment gains. He added that ArcelorMittal does not view inventory levels in Europe as excessive.

Daniel Fairclough of ArcelorMittal’s investor relations team said recent European policy actions, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, the new TRQ tool and proposed changes to the EU Emissions Trading System, represent important steps toward supporting industrial competitiveness alongside decarbonization. He said the company continues to engage with policymakers on the balance between carbon costs and the conditions needed for large-scale decarbonization investment. Cash flow, capital allocation and growth projects Underlying free cash flow in the first half annualized at $...