TSMC: I Was Wrong

Taiwan Semiconductor retains a hold rating after a 110% rally, as the current valuation exceeds aggressive fair value estimates.

Geopolitical risks have eased, with U.S. export restrictions rolled back and major clients regaining access to China, supporting TSM revenues.

TSM delivered record Q2 results and raised its 2026 outlook, but aggressive CapEx and high expectations have tempered market enthusiasm.

My DCF model, assuming 40% revenue growth and 60% margins, yields a fair value below the current price, limiting the margin of safety.

The last time I covered Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM ) back in October 2024, I gave the company a rating of Hold and argued that the escalating chip war could get ugly for the