Freeport McMoRan Post-Earnings: Why Good Enough May Finally Be Good Enough

Freeport-McMoRan's second-quarter 2026 earnings showed sharply higher copper and gold prices offsetting lower sales volumes caused by Grasberg's phased restart.

The Grasberg Block Cave mine ramp-up is progressing toward full production capacity by the end of 2027, reducing long-term operational risk for the company.

Despite a post-earnings pullback from 52-week highs, FCX shares remain in a broader uptrend supported by rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages and higher analyst price targets.

On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan NYSE: FCX delivered an earnings report shaped by two forces that will define how investors read the quarter. Copper and gold prices sat at historically elevated levels, lifting realizations across the board. The report also showed the company continues to move toward full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mine was closed in 2025 following a mining accident that locked up a significant portion of the company’s production.

However, FCX was down after the report. This could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. The stock climbed approximately 15% from July 17 through the market's close on July 22. That suggests a lot of good news was priced into the report, which, by the numbers, was good but maybe not enough to justify FCX at a 52-week high in the short term. But in the long term, there are two key factors to consider in analyzing Freeport-McMoRan's earnings.

The headline numbers for the second quarter of 2026 show why investors were pushing FCX higher ahead of earnings. Freeport-McMoRan posted second-quarter net income of $984 million, or 68 cents per share, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents after backing out one-time charges tied to the Grasberg incident. Revenue totaled $7 billion, and the company generated $2 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter.

The real story was pricing: The company realized an average of $6.17 per pound for copper in the quarter, up roughly 36% from $4.54 a year ago. Gold realizations jumped to $4,520 per ounce from $3,291, a year-over-year (YOY) gain of roughly 37%. Molybdenum, often an afterthought in Freeport's story, also strengthened meaningfully, realizing $28.75 per pound versus $21.10 last year.

Copper sales volumes were down significantly year over year (710 million pounds versus 1.0 billion), a direct consequence of Grasberg's phased restart. In other words, FCX is earning more money while selling less copper. That dynamic won't repeat itself once Grasberg volumes normalize, which is worth keeping in mind when projecting forward growth rates.

The other half of the bull case is de-risking, not just pricing. Freeport confirmed that its Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up met expectations in the second quarter, with mining rates climbing from 34,000 tons per day in April to 69,000 tons per day in June. Management now expects PTFI's overall production capacity to reach roughly 65% in the second half of 2026, 80% by mid-2027, and near full capacity by the end of 2027. That timeline also explains why unit net cash costs in Indonesia remain negative. PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) reported unit net cash credits of 81 cents per pound of copper in the quarter, meaning by-product gold credits more than offset production costs. As volumes recover, that credit dynamic should provide a conti...