Jefferies asks whether Segro can go it alone as Prologis deadline looms

Jefferies has questioned whether SEGRO PLC (LSE:SGRO), the FTSE 100 warehouse landlord, can deliver the value its own strategy promises without falling to a takeover, as US suitor Prologis faces a Wednesday deadline to bid or walk away.

Segro estimates its development pipeline could generate around £900 million of future rents and £4.1 billion of shareholder value, driving earnings per share from 36.6p in 2025 to roughly 50p by 2030.

The bank notes Segro has a track record of selling assets at or above book value, having disposed of £2.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 at an average 10.2% premium.

Jefferies flags a point of contention over the 8% discount rate Segro applies to value its pipeline, which the bank considers light given its own estimate of a cost of capital nearer 10%.

Data centres are central to the growth case, with Segro targeting 30% of its portfolio from that source by 2035, up from 7% today.

Segro has rejected a third approach from Prologis, whose latest proposal valued the company at 993p a share, around a 10% premium to net tangible assets of 905p.

Under UK takeover rules, Prologis must declare a firm intention to bid or step back by 5 pm on 22 July, a deadline that can only be extended with the Takeover Panel's consent.

Segro casts the offer as opportunistic, arguing it provides only a modest premium to pre-turbulence share prices and undervalues what it calls a unique and irreplaceable European portfolio.

Jefferies keeps a hold rating on Segro with a price target of 917p, implying modest upside from the shares at 885.6p, and rates Prologis a buy.