Micron: It Does Not Need To Beat SK Hynix At Nvidia

Micron Technology is rated Buy, with upside driven by expanding HBM demand beyond Nvidia, particularly from hyperscaler custom AI accelerators. MU targets maintaining a ~22% HBM market share, matching its DRAM share, as custom ASICs become a larger HBM demand source. Micron's HBM4 is in volume production, with qualification samples sent to multiple customers, but a named non-Nvidia win remains a key inflection point. A base case valuation of $1,125 per share (32% upside) assumes MU secures at least one major non-Nvidia HBM customer amid strong custom-accelerator demand.

Micron Technology (MU) appears to be judged on HBM with the question: can Micron take enough NVIDIA (NVDA) business from SK hynix (SKHY)? But this is not the right question.