Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 2, 2026

Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 2, 2026

The yield on the 10-year note finished July 2, 2026 at 4.49% while the 2-year note ended at 4.14%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.

This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007.

A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of ‘stagflation’ (economic stagnation coupled with inflation)

Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve is when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than their shorter term counterparts. The next chart displays the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, the spread turns negative for a period before rising again prior to recessions, as illustrated in the four recessions shown on this chart. For this reason, the 10-2 spread is widely considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions. The lead time between a negative spread and the onset of a recession varies, with recessions beginning anywhere from 18 to 92 weeks after the spread goes negative. One false positive is seen in 1998, where the spread briefly went negative without leading to a recession. In the case of the 2009 recession, the spread went negative multiple times before rising again. Most recently, the spread was continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024. The last time the spread was negative was on September 5, 2024. If we consider the first negative spread date as the starting point, the average lead time to a recession is 48 weeks, or about eleven months. If we instead use the last positive spread date before a recession, the average lead time is 18.5 weeks, or about 4.25 months. For another perspective on the yield curve, the 10-3mo spread below uses an ...