Five Reasons Treasury Bond Yields Will Plummet In The Next Year

John Early 2.26K Followers Follow Summary Long-term GDP growth trends and subdued money supply growth point to significantly lower interest rates in the coming years. Inflation fears are likely overstated, with currency in circulation growth aligning with the Fed’s 2% inflation target and oil price spikes appearing cyclical. The Fed’s accommodative stance, elevated monetary base, and historical correlations suggest 10-year Treasury yields could fall below 2% in the next recession. Rising national debt does not currently threaten higher yields; long-term Treasuries are positioned for capital gains unless political interference triggers inflation. designer491/iStock via Getty Images Several generational influences point to significantly lower interest rates in the next few years. While the Fed will almost certainly raise the Fed Funds rate soon, a downtrend in rates will likely become obvious in the next This article was written by John Early 2.26K Followers Follow Have managed money for clients as an independent advisor since 1991. Published a newsletter ECONOMIC LEADS from 1988 to 1993. Have an economics degree from Vanderbilt University. Focus on the macro picture forecasting the US economy and broad stock market. Also have a model to estimate long term equity returns for several countries. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.