Moelis & Company: Downside Protection

Moelis & Company (MC) reported 1Q26 earnings below consensus, with EPS and revenue missing by 15% and 5%, respectively. Revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $320 million, driven by Private Capital Advisory and M&A, but offset by Capital Structure and Capital Markets weakness. Despite macro concerns, deal pipeline is near a record high with forecasted EBITDA growth greater than the financial sector average. MC maintains a strong balance sheet with $353.7 million in cash, no debt, a $0.65 dividend, and a newly authorized $300 million share buyback.

MC's stock has essentially been flat over the past year. The company's primary growth driver is M&A activity which was strong and lead to a record 1Q26 revenue. Despite macro concerns, MC's forward EBITDA growth.