10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2026

This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield’s historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500.

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. More recently, at the end of June 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.

The stagflation crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s demanded drastic measures. To combat soaring prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker pushed the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to a historic high of 20.06% in January 1981. This aggressive tightening of monetary policy was instrumental in curbing runaway inflation, albeit at the cost of a significant economic slowdown. Nine months later, in October 1981, the 10-year yield’s weekly average hit a peak of 15.68%.

In stark contrast, the FFR was driven to near-zero levels in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and again during the economic turmoil of the 2020 pandemic. Specifically, the FFR reached a record low of approximately 0.04% in May 2020. A few months later, the 10-year yield weekly average fell to a historic low of 0.55% in August. These periods of ultra-low interest rates aimed to stimulate borrowing, investment, and economic recovery.

This period of ultra-low rates was followed by inflation reaching its highest levels since the aforementioned stagflation crisis. In response, the Fed began raising rates to fight inflation, though some would argue their efforts were too late. From May 2022 to August 2023, the Fed quickly raised the FFR to its highest level in over 20 years. The 10-year yield moved...